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Notices

 Year

 Month

 Port Updates

SubjectDatePriority
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/31/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Hurricane Isaias 07/31/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 10 07/30/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Tropical Storm Isaias 07/30/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/30/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine 07/29/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/29/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 07/29/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Potential Cyclone 9 07/28/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/28/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/28/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane /// Significant Tropical Weather07/28/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/27/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/26/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Hurricane Hanna and Remnants of Gonzalo07/25/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/25/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Tropical Storm Hanna and Tropical Storm Gonzalo 07/25/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Tropical Storm Hanna and Tropical Storm Gonzalo07/24/2020 Normal
PCT Meeting 0900/24th July For Tropical Storm Hanna 07/24/2020 Normal
NOAA // Tropical Storm Hanna and Tropical Storm Gonzalo 07/24/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/24/2020 Normal
Tropical Depression 807/23/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Tropical Depression 8 and Tropical Storm Gonzalo Update 07/23/2020 Normal
Brazos Pilots Association Notice of Port Freeport Condition Update Upgraded to Port Condition X-Ray 07/23/2020 Normal
USCG COTP - MSIB issuing Port Condition to Whiskey07/23/2020 Normal
Tropical Depression 8 // USCG COTP Set Port Condition - Whiskey07/23/2020 Normal
Coast Guard Port Conditions for Tropical Weather07/23/2020 Normal
Brazos Pilots Association Notice of Port Freeport Condition Update07/23/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/23/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Tropical Depression 8 and Tropical Storm Gonzalo 07/23/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/23/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Tropical Depression 8 and Tropical Storm Gonzalo 07/22/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Tropical Disturbance #7 and Tropical Storm Gonzalo07/22/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/22/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update Corrected07/22/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Tropical Depression # 707/22/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/22/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Outlook07/21/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/21/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/20/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/19/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/18/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/17/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/17/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/16/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/16/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/15/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/15/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/14/2020 Normal
FW: Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/14/2020 Normal
USCG MSU Houston COVID-19 Vessel Screening07/13/2020 Normal
USCG MSU Houston ***Coast Guard Safety Marine Safety Alert 05-20: Hazardous Area Electrical Installation Issues****07/13/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/13/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/13/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/12/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/11/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/10/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/10/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/09/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/09/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/08/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/08/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/07/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/07/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/06/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/06/2020 Normal
NOAA Hurricane // Tropical Disturbance # 1 07/05/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/05/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/04/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/03/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/03/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/02/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/02/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, and Freeport, Texas // COVID - 19 Update07/01/2020 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 07/01/2020 Normal

 Daily Port Update

Subject:NOAA Hurricane // Tropical Depression 8 and Tropical Storm Gonzalo Update
Date:Thursday, July 23, 2020
Priority:Normal
Notice:

Tropical Depression 8

U.S. Rainfall Potential

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">000

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT23 KNHC 232045

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TCMAT3

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082020

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  90.7W AT 23/2100Z

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   7 KT

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  90.7W AT 23/2100Z

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  90.3W

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.5N  91.9W

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.1N  93.6W

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.5N  95.3W

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 27.6N  97.0W

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.5N  98.5W...INLAND

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.3N 100.0W...INLAND

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.0N 102.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N  90.7W

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0000Z

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECASTER BEVEN

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

  <span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion     112 WTNT43 KNHC 232047 TCDAT3   Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082020 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020   Satellite imagery indicates that the depression continues to become better organized, with the center near the eastern edge of a large and broadly curved convective area, with a second curved band to the east.  Several subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have increased to 35 kt since the last advisory.  However, surface observations, scatterometer data, and data from an earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission show a large area of 25-30 kt winds south and east of the center, and no 35-kt winds to justify an upgrade at this time.  Thus, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this evening, and the current expectation is that they will find it is a tropical storm.   The center meandered a bit today, possibly due to reformation.  However, the system now seems to have resumed a west-northwestward motion of 285/7 kt.  A mid-level ridge over the central United States is the predominant steering influence, and the global models forecast this ridge to build somewhat during the next several days. This should cause the depression to turn westward by 36-48 h and south of west after about 60 h.  The track guidance remains in good agreement with that scenario, although there has been a slight southward shift in the guidance envelope and the consensus models.  The new NHC forecast track is also shifted a little southward and has the center making landfall along the Texas coast in about 48 h.   The depression is in an environment of light shear with good anticyclonic outflow, and it will be over warm sea surface temperatures until landfall.  This should allow steady strengthening.  The new NHC intensity forecast has been increased to show a peak intensity of 50 kt just before landfall, followed by steady weakening and eventually dissipation after landfall.  The new intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus.   The aircraft and scatterometer data show that the strongest winds in the cyclone are currently occurring about 70-90 n mi from the center.  This has caused the forecast wind radii to be expanded, and as a result a Tropical Storm Warning is needed for portions of the Texas coast.     Key Messages   1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it is likely to bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm warning has been issued.   2. The tropical cyclone is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana, southern Texas, and northern Mexico.  These rains could result in flash flooding and isolated minor-to-moderate river flooding.     FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS   INIT  23/2100Z 26.1N  90.7W   30 KT  35 MPH 12H  24/0600Z 26.5N  91.9W   35 KT  40 MPH 24H  24/1800Z 27.1N  93.6W   45 KT  50 MPH 36H  25/0600Z 27.5N  95.3W   50 KT  60 MPH 48H  25/1800Z 27.6N  97.0W   50 KT  60 MPH 60H  26/0600Z 27.5N  98.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND 72H  26/1800Z 27.3N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND 96H  27/1800Z 27.0N 102.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED   $$ Forecaster Beven  

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">000 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WTNT42 KNHC 232041 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TCDAT2 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number   9 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072020 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">500 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Scatterometer data received just after the release of the previous <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">advisory only showed winds of 40-45 kt, but given Gonzalo's small <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">size, it's unlikely that the resolution of the instrument was able <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to capture the maximum winds.  Even correcting for that, Gonzalo's <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">winds were lowered to 50 kt on the 2 PM intermediate advisory, and <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">that still looks good now with satellite intensity estimates <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ranging from 35 kt to 55 kt.  Structure-wise, deep convection has <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">redeveloped on top of Gonzalo's center, so the storm is not ready <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to give up its fight quite yet. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">There is still greater-than-normal uncertainty in Gonzalo's <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">forecast intensity due to its small size and how it will behave in <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">an environment of relatively light shear and warm sea surface <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">temperatures counterbalanced by a lot of dry air.  The  statistical <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and dynamical hurricane models continue to show strengthening, while <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">several of the global models, in particular the ECMWF and UKMET, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">still show Gonzalo weakening and opening up into a trough near or <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">after it passes the Windward Islands.  Based on the lower initial <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">intensity and the latest guidance, the new official forecast <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">has been lowered slightly, but it still brings Gonzalo to the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">hurricane threshold in 36-48 hours.  Either way, Gonzalo's small <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">size makes it susceptible to short-term changes in intensity that <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">cannot be reflected in the official forecast.  There is more <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">confidence that weakening will occur after Gonzalo moves over the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Caribbean Sea, with even the GFS showing the system becoming a <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">trough.  Given that, dissipation is now shown in the forecast at day <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">5. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gonzalo's initial motion is westward, or 275/11 kt.  There has been <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">no change in the track forecast reasoning, with Gonzalo expected to <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">accelerate toward the west and west-northwest through the forecast <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">period.  The track guidance is fairly tightly clustered, showing <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gonzalo's center crossing somewhere through the Windward Islands <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">between 48-60 hours.  Some of the models shifted northward a bit on <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has therefore been nudged in <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">that direction close to the multi-model consensus aids, HCCA, and <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the Florida State Superensemble.  However, users should not focus <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">on these relatively small shifts in the forecast track from cycle <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to cycle, and for the Windward Islands in particular, consider that <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">48-60 hour forecast points can be off by an average of 60-80 nm. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Key Messages <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">be when it moves across the islands. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night.  Hurricane <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect some of <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the islands, and additional watches or warnings could be required <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">tonight or early Friday.  Interests in the southern Windward Islands <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">by local officials. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">INIT  23/2100Z  9.8N  49.4W   50 KT  60 MPH <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 12H  24/0600Z 10.0N  51.2W   55 KT  65 MPH <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 24H  24/1800Z 10.5N  53.8W   60 KT  70 MPH <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 36H  25/0600Z 11.1N  56.6W   65 KT  75 MPH <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 48H  25/1800Z 12.0N  59.7W   65 KT  75 MPH <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 60H  26/0600Z 13.0N  62.6W   60 KT  70 MPH <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 72H  26/1800Z 13.8N  65.6W   55 KT  65 MPH <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 96H  27/1800Z 14.5N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$ <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Forecaster Berg

Sincerely,

Bob Lain

Moran Shipping Agencies, Inc.

As Agents Only

16651 Ronan

Houston, TX 77060
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For quality assurance purposes please note well that while the above information is regularly vetted for accuracy it is not intended to replace the local knowledge or expertise pertaining to port conditions of our marine operations personnel. Port précis should always be verified by contacting the corresponding marine department of a particular location for the most up-to-date information.