Freeport

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine

000

WTNT44 KNHC 292044

TCDAT4

 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020

500 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

 

Deep convection has continued to increase in association with the

disturbance since the previous advisory.  More recently, a band has

developed over the southwestern portion of the broad circulation

and it appears that the system may be closer to acquiring a

well-defined center.  Earlier ASCAT data that arrived shortly after

the release of the previous advisory revealed a large area of 35-40

kt winds well to the north of the vorticity maximum.  This

supports maintaining the initial intensity of 40 kt.

 

The estimated motion remains a brisk 290/20 kt.  A strong

subtropical ridge that extends westward over the western Atlantic

should continue to steer the system west-northwestward over the next

couple of days, bringing the system near or over Hispaniola late

tonight and Thursday.  A mid-latitude trough moving into the central

United States on Friday is forecast to weaken the western portion of

the ridge which should cause a reduction in the forward speed of the

system and a turn toward the northwest and north later in the

forecast period.  The latest iterations of the dynamical models have

trended toward a more eastward solution, taking the system near or

just east of the Florida peninsula.  Since the system still lacks a

well-defined center it is not surprising to see these

inconsistencies in the model runs.  As a result, the NHC forecast

has been shifted eastward, but it remains to the west of the latest

multi-model consensus aids out of respect for continuity and the

continued possibility of further model shifts.

 

The system is still forecast to become a tropical storm before

reaching Hispaniola, and some slight strengthening could occur

before landfall Thursday morning.  Some weakening is likely as the

system moves over that island.  The system is likely to take some

time to recover after its passage over land, and given the forecast

for at least moderate south to southwesterly shear, only

gradual strengthening is indicated at that time.  As mentioned

above, some of the global models are now showing a track farther

away from eastern Cuba and east of Florida, and if that occurs the

NHC intensity forecast could be somewhat conservative.  Interests

in the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor

forecasts as changes to both the track and intensity are likely.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy

rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides

across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto

Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and over the

Inagua Islands into the southeastern Bahamas.

 

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the

Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through

tonight and will spread westward to portions of the Dominican

Republic, Haiti, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos

on Thursday and Thursday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are in

effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track

forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the

center of the system.

 

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts

remain more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a

well-defined center and it is expected to move near or over portions

of the Greater Antilles later this week and move near or over

Florida this weekend.  While this system could bring some rainfall

and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the central and northwest

Bahamas, and Florida later this week and this weekend, it is too

soon to determine the location or magnitude of those impacts.

Interests there should monitor the progress of this system and

updates to the forecast over the next few days.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  29/2100Z 16.4N  65.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

12H  30/0600Z 17.5N  68.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H  30/1800Z 19.2N  71.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

36H  31/0600Z 20.9N  74.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER

48H  31/1800Z 22.3N  76.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

60H  01/0600Z 23.6N  78.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

72H  01/1800Z 25.5N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

96H  02/1800Z 28.6N  82.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

120H  03/1800Z 31.5N  82.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 

$$

Forecaster Brown

Sincerely,

Bob Lain

Moran Shipping Agencies, Inc.

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