Freeport

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684

WTNT44 KNHC 301451

TCDAT4

 

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020

1100 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

 

The satellite presentation of Isaias has improved over the past 24

hours with a concentrated area of deep convection occurring near

and to the northeast of the low-level center.  Radar imagery from

Puerto Rico has shown a mid-level circulation that moved over the

Mona passage and is now along the northern coast of Hispaniola.

Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve

reconnaissance aircraft, however, continue to place the center near

the southeastern coast of Hispaniola. It is possible that a new

center will re-form along the northern coast of Hispaniola as the

system interacts with high terrain of that island later today or

tonight.  The initial intensity remains 50 kt, and is based on the

earlier Doppler radar data and observations along the southern coast

of Puerto Rico.

 

Isaias is moving northwestward or 310/16 kt.  A high pressure ridge

over the western Atlantic should steer Isaias on a west-

northwestward to northwestward heading over the next couple of days,

but the likelihood of a center re-formation during the next 12-18

hours means that some adjustments to the track and motion are

possible.  By late Friday, a mid-latitude trough moving into the

east-central United States is expected to weaken the western portion

of the ridge.  This pattern should cause the cyclone to turn

northwestward to north-northwestward on Saturday when it is near

the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.  As the trough slides

eastward over the United States, this should steer Isaias northward

and northeastward early next week.  Although the bulk of the track

guidance agrees on this overall scenario, the confidence in the

track forecast remains lower than usual due to the expected land

interaction and possible center reformation in the short term.  The

new NHC track forecast is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus

and the TCVA multi-model consensus, and is similar to the previous

advisory.

 

The intensity forecast remains challenging. The structure of the

storm is likely to be disrupted by its passage near or over

Hispaniola today, and some weakening is likely.  Once the system

moves away from the Greater Antilles gradual strengthening is

anticipated.  The global models and the SHIPS guidance suggest that

Isaias will encounter an area of moderate southwesterly shear over

the weekend, and the NHC intensity forecast is again leveled off at

that time.  There are models that continue to suggest Isaias could

become a hurricane when it is near the U.S., but given the continued

uncertainty, the NHC intensity forecast remains near the intensity

consensus.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening

flash flooding and mudslides across Puerto Rico, the Dominican

Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida

Saturday morning, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban

flooding.

 

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early afternoon and will

spread across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks

and Caicos and the Bahamas later today through Friday, and Tropical

Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the

details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will

extend far from the center of the system.

 

3. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm

surge along portions of the U.S. east coast beginning this weekend

in Florida and spreading northward to the Carolinas and southern

mid-Atlantic states early next week. Due to Isaias interacting with

Hispaniola, the details of the track and intensity forecast remain

uncertain and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location

of these potential impacts. Interests in these areas should monitor

the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. Tropical storm

or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida

later today.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  30/1500Z 18.1N  68.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

12H  31/0000Z 19.7N  71.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

24H  31/1200Z 21.4N  74.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER

36H  01/0000Z 23.0N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

48H  01/1200Z 24.6N  78.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

60H  02/0000Z 26.2N  79.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

72H  02/1200Z 28.0N  79.9W   60 KT  70 MPH

96H  03/1200Z 31.5N  79.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

120H  04/1200Z 37.5N  73.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Brown

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