<span-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Hurricane Danny
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">000
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">WTNT44 KNHC 211438
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Danny has continued to strengthen during the past several hours.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">The small eye has become better defined, and it is now embedded in
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">a circular central dense overcast. In addition, the ragged outer
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">banding has increased in coverage and now surrounds the central
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">convection. The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt in
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. It
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">is notable that experimental multispectral METEOSAT imagery suggests
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">that low-level moisture has wrapped around the cyclone and pushed
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">the drier air farther away. This could be helping both the
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">intensification and the increase in outer banding.
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">The initial motion is 290/9. The subtropical ridge north of Danny
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">remains weaker than normal due to a deep-layer trough over the
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">western Atlantic. This trough is expected to lift northward in a
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">couple of days, allowing the ridge to build westward and
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">strengthen. This evolution should cause Danny to turn more
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">westward with some increase in forward speed. The track guidance
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">is in good agreement with this scenario and forecasts Danny to be
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">near the Leeward Islands in about 72 hours, near Puerto Rico in
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">about 96 hours, and near Hispaniola in about 120 hours. The new
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">forecast track, which is in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">models, lies close to the previous forecast through 96 hours and a
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">little to the north of the previous forecast at 120 hours.
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Danny is currently in an environment of light vertical wind shear.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">However, it is about to encounter increasing upper-level
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the northeastern
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Caribbean, with the shear forecast to increase to over 20 kt by 96
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">hours. This, combined with the abundant dry air remaining along the
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">forecast track, should cause Danny to weaken below hurricane
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">strength as it approaches the Caribbean islands. The new intensity
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">forecast is a little stronger than the intensity consensus through
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">96 hours. After that, it is weaker than most of the guidance due
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">to the expected interaction with land.
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">A NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research mission in and around
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Danny this afternoon, and an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">aircraft will investigate Danny Saturday afternoon. These data
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">will provide a better assessment of the intensity and structure of
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">the hurricane.
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">INIT 21/1500Z 14.0N 48.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">12H 22/0000Z 14.5N 49.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">24H 22/1200Z 15.1N 51.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">36H 23/0000Z 15.5N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">48H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">72H 24/1200Z 17.0N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">96H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">120H 26/1200Z 19.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">$$
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Forecaster Beven
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